AGP Executive Report

Iran-US escalation: Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says the “era of proportionate responses” is over, warning any new attack will bring “faster, heavier, more painful” retaliation after the US struck three Iranian crude carriers and Iran claimed hits on US-linked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Lebanon-Israel front: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun accuses Israel of expanding strikes to Lebanese state institutions after an Israeli attack damaged the Finance Ministry building in Nabatieh, ahead of renewed US-mediated ceasefire talks. Nuclear diplomacy: Western allies are pushing the IAEA to move a formal case toward the UN Security Council and General Assembly over Iran’s nuclear program as tensions rise. Oil markets: OPEC+ kept October output quotas unchanged despite Hormuz disruptions, while OPEC’s chief stressed market stability is the priority. Israel domestic fallout: A Tel Aviv University study says Israel’s doctor “brain drain” is accelerating, with nearly 1,400 doctors leaving over three years. Turkey economy: Turkey revived plans to privatize Istanbul’s two main bridges for 30-year operating rights, aiming to complete the process by 2031. Palestinian politics: Fatah’s Jibril Rajoub met Hamas leaders in Turkey, casting doubt on November elections and calling for a broader faction dialogue.

US-Iran Maritime Escalation: After President Trump downplayed the conflict as “small potatoes,” U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, saying the moves followed IRGC missile attacks on an aircraft carrier and destroyer; Iran retaliated by claiming it hit three more U.S.-linked vessels and three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, warning ships away from “unauthorized” routes and threatening harsher strikes. War of Words: Iran’s foreign ministry called the U.S. attacks a “war crime,” while Washington warned it would impose higher “economic cost” by disabling or destroying more of Iran’s oil fleet. Regional Flashpoints: Israel is weighing a new “security zone” 2–4 km inside Lebanon as it plans redeployments after operations around the Ali al-Taher ridge, while Israeli shells hit southern Syria’s Quneitra countryside near Al-Rafid. West Bank Tensions: U.S. Ambassador Mike Huckabee visited the occupied West Bank and labeled settler violence an “act of terror,” urging accountability and “severe consequences.” Arab League Diplomacy: Qatar took part in the Arab League Council session in Cairo, with the agenda covering the Palestinian cause and condemning Iran’s attacks on Arab nations and navigation security.

US-Iran Escalation: Explosions and fresh claims of a U.S. strike near Iran’s Kharg Island oil hub are stoking fears of wider conflict, as Iran says missiles hit a tanker close to the strategic terminal while the U.S. has not verified the report. Oil Shock & Costs: Renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges pushed crude above $90 and lifted diesel prices, while analysts warn sanctions and blockade pressure are squeezing Iran’s economy and disrupting regional shipping. Nuclear Threat Rhetoric: Trump again warned of possible action against Iran’s “Pickaxe Mountain” underground nuclear site, even as he downplayed the conflict as “small potatoes” despite reported U.S. deaths. Pentagon Leak Hunt: The Pentagon reportedly gave polygraph tests to about 50 Joint Staff members amid concerns about leaks tied to dwindling munitions. West Bank Violence & Gaza Displacement: U.S. envoy Mike Huckabee told reporters Israel has no plan to force Palestinians out of Gaza, while also urging Israel to protect West Bank Palestinians amid rising settler pogroms. Arab League Diplomacy: The Arab League Council session in Cairo put Iranian attacks on the agenda, with Tunisia taking the presidency from Bahrain and calling the strikes a violation of international law. Iran Internal Security: Iran’s IRGC says it dismantled an alleged terrorist cell in Sistan and Baluchestan, linking it to U.S.-Israeli involvement. Regional Trade Links: Iran and Iraq’s Kurdistan Region discussed easing border movement and expanding road transport and tourism ties.

Israel-Hezbollah Escalation: Israel carried out airstrikes across south Lebanon and for the first time in three months hit West Bekaa after a Hezbollah drone launch in the security zone, killing at least two and wounding others, while Israel also said it took control of the Ali al-Taher ridge. Iran-US Nuclear Threat: US President Trump warned the US may strike Iran’s underground “Pickaxe Mountain” nuclear site “very soon,” saying activity is being monitored and that Washington aims to stop any nuclear rebuild. War of Words in Washington: Trump and VP JD Vance again downplayed the Iran conflict as “small potatoes” and “not a war,” sparking backlash from US Democrats and families of service members. Regional Diplomacy: UAE President Mohamed and Turkey’s Erdogan stressed the need for lasting Middle East peace amid renewed Iran-related attacks. Gulf and UN Pushback: Qatar rejected Iran’s claims about attacks on its territory, saying they violate international law, and Russia dismissed US demands to distance itself from Iran. Economic Pressure: The US approved a nearly $5bn Saudi arms package including glide bombs, while also sanctioning a Turkish bank accused of helping Iran move oil revenues. Humanitarian/Detention: The Red Cross facilitated transfers of people released by Israel to Lebanon, as families still seek information on detainees and missing persons.

Arab League Diplomacy: The Arab League condemned Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks on Kuwait, stressing solidarity with Kuwait and calling for an immediate halt to violations of Arab sovereignty and territorial integrity. US-Iran War of Words: US Vice President JD Vance insisted the conflict is “not a war,” while saying “everything” remains on the table to pressure Iran to stop firing at commercial shipping; the administration is also investigating reports of a deadly wedding strike in southern Iran. Wedding Strike Probe: Reuters reports the Iran wedding blast was likely a direct hit by US munitions, killing four and injuring dozens, as Washington says it does not deliberately target civilians. Lebanon Prisoner Swaps: Israel released Lebanese detainees to the Red Cross as part of renewed talks with Lebanon, with Beirut receiving four more prisoners and seeking help finding missing remains from Lebanon’s civil war. EU Joins Economic Pressure: EU officials moved to back Washington’s economic isolation campaign against Iran, with US Treasury chief Scott Bessent praising the EU’s stance. Fuel Shock: Diesel prices in the US hit a record $5.85 a gallon amid Strait of Hormuz disruption and broader Middle East tensions, adding pressure to household costs and markets. Israel-Lebanon Security: Israel said it seized Hezbollah’s Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, while warning it would target Iranian infrastructure, including energy, if Iran attacks.

Lebanon Front: Netanyahu says the IDF has cleared Hezbollah’s Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon, saying it no longer threatens northern Israeli settlements after months of operations. US-Iran Escalation: JD Vance again downplayed the conflict as “not a war,” while saying Washington is investigating Iran’s claim that a US strike hit a wedding in Sirik; Iran says five died and dozens were hurt. Gulf Retaliation: Iran launched missiles and drones toward Kuwait and the UAE, with Kuwait reporting interceptions; the US says it targets military assets and is focused on protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Oman rejected Iran’s proposed Hormuz fees, adding uncertainty to any revenue-sharing plan as oil and shipping risks rise. Diplomacy & Hostages: The US backed a plan to release five Lebanese detainees, even as Israel abducted three more from a village in occupied southern Lebanon. Palestine & Rights: Amnesty says Israel is escalating West Bank land seizures; in the UK, four Palestine Action activists will appeal “terrorism” sentences. US Politics: Vance says the administration has “all options” on the table for Iran, but won’t set a public end date ahead of November midterms.

Israel-Lebanon Prisoners: Israel says it will release several Lebanese detainees as a “gesture” to Beirut, with talks reportedly held in Rome and framed as non-Hezbollah civilian cases. Israel-Iran Escalation: Defense Minister Israel Katz warns that any Iranian attack would “free” Israel to strike all Iranian national and civilian infrastructure, including energy, vowing to send Iran “deep into the Stone Age,” as Israel raises readiness for the Jewish holidays. US-Iran Gulf Fighting: Iran says it hit U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE with missiles and drones, while Kuwait reports interceptions and calls it aggression; the U.S. says it struck Iranian launchers tied to mine deployment and warns it can strike again “any time.” Hormuz Pressure & Shipping: Iran reiterates it controls conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. escorts oil vessels through the waterway amid fears of wider disruption. Regional Diplomacy & Economy: The Arab League warns Iranian escalation threatens regional security; Malaysia urges Washington and Tehran to return to diplomacy; fuel prices spike in Europe as the conflict feeds market stress. Gaza: Israel kills two Palestinians in northern Gaza amid continued ceasefire violations.

US-Iran Escalation: The biggest exchange of fire since July reignited fears across the region after US strikes hit Iran’s southern coast, with Iran claiming a wedding was bombed and its health minister later putting deaths at 18 and injuries at 108; the US says it hit military targets and “never targets civilians,” while Trump warned the campaign won’t last “too long” and threatened more strikes “any time we want,” even floating a “Trump Strait” name. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Oil markets wobbled as investors weighed supply risks, amid reports of increased commercial traffic and US moves to enforce a tanker-focused approach, including redirecting 86 vessels and disabling/boarding others. Economic Warfare: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent urged allies to “economically asphyxiate” Iran and said Washington will block yuan-to-dollar conversion, while the UAE reportedly moved to cut financial ties with Tehran. Regional Ripples: Saudi Arabia accused Iran of attacking a tanker in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors, as Iran retaliated by striking US-linked bases in multiple Gulf states. Lebanon Front: In Israel-Hezbollah fighting, Reuters highlighted the Ali al-Taher ridge as a key contested ground shaping the next phase of operations. Afghanistan Governance: In Kabul, the Taliban defended a full ban on public protests under its interpretation of Islamic law.

US-Iran Escalation: The US resumed strikes on Iran after a monthslong lull, with Washington saying it hit IRGC-linked military targets and Tehran retaliating across the region, including attacks on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq. Wedding Strike Fallout: Iran and Iranian officials accused the US of bombing a wedding in Sirik, killing at least four and wounding dozens, while the US denied targeting civilians and CENTCOM said it struck military assets. Regional Pressure & Warnings: Iran’s security chief warned of a “new strategy” spanning battlefield, diplomacy and economic pressure, as Trump escalated rhetoric and threatened wider consequences. Gulf Shipping & Mines: Iran’s IRGC claimed it hit two oil tankers with mines in the Strait of Hormuz and warned shipping away from “unauthorized” routes, while oil markets reacted to renewed Strait-of-Hormuz risk. Diplomacy Attempts: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim urged both sides to halt escalation and return to diplomacy, warning the conflict could pull other states in and worsen civilian hardship. Lebanon-Israel Talks: US envoy Michel Issa met Netanyahu as Lebanon-Israel negotiations reportedly look toward a new round in Rome (Sep. 15-16). Oman Oil & Markets: Oman’s official crude price rose to $101.56 a barrel as renewed fighting stoked supply fears and pushed Brent and WTI higher. UN Sanctions Row: Russia and China signaled they may block a Western push to renew UN sanctions oversight on Iran, setting up another Security Council showdown.

US-Iran Escalation: The US resumed and then completed another wave of strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets, citing attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and on American personnel; Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks across the region, including claims of strikes on US bases in Jordan, while Jordan said it intercepted 10 of 13 ballistic missiles. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Both sides traded fire as Hormuz tensions intensified, with Iran warning of “severe punishment” and the US saying it is acting to stop mine-laying and further restrictions on the key shipping lane. Human Cost in Iran: Iranian media and the Red Crescent reported a US strike hit a wedding in Sirik, killing four (including a child) and injuring dozens, as explosions were also reported across southern Iran. Nuclear Diplomacy Under Strain: The UN nuclear watchdog urged “utmost urgency” for access to Iran’s nuclear sites, warning that lack of information and inspector access is a proliferation concern, ahead of a contentious UN vote. Regional Alignments: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit ended with a declaration backing Iran, while Iran’s president said Tehran would immediately reciprocate a ceasefire if the US returns to its June memorandum. Markets and Energy: Oil jumped and European gas prices spiked as investors priced in longer disruption risks, while Asian stocks fell amid bond-yield pressure tied to the renewed conflict.

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The U.S. denied Iran’s claim that a tanker hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump threatens further “limited” strikes and oil prices jump on renewed supply fears after tankers were reportedly hit. Iran’s Economic Pressure: Iran’s central bank says it has enough foreign currency reserves despite sanctions, while the toman slides past 210,000 per dollar and inflation stays high. Diplomacy at SCO: Iran’s President Pezeshkian met Putin on the SCO sidelines, warning US pressure could derail diplomacy, and said Tehran would reciprocate if Washington returns to a deal. Regional Politics: China’s Xi visits Egypt as US sanctions threats loom over Iran links, while Syria says it seeks a diplomatic solution with Israel via US mediation. Israel-Gaza Developments: Israel carried out heavy strikes in Gaza City to enable a militia operation, and Israel accuses Spain’s Sanchez of “brazen lie” over Ceuta remarks. Humanitarian Afghanistan: One year after a deadly earthquake, many Afghans still live in tents as aid funding dwindles. Sports: India named a fitness-conditional squad for T20Is vs Afghanistan, with Bumrah and others returning; Hardik Pandya remains out.

U.S.-Iran Escalation: The war flared again after U.S. forces struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran to hit U.S. bases in Jordan and targets at the Al Minhad Air Base in the UAE, with Jordan intercepting missiles and the UAE saying it shot down a drone. Nuclear Rhetoric: Trump dismissed a reporter’s question about nuclear weapons as “stupid,” while also warning strikes could continue and calling Iran a “failed nation.” Hormuz Pressure on Trade: The renewed fighting is reviving fears for shipping and energy supplies, with oil jumping above $90 and markets reacting from Wall Street to Asia. Sanctions and Diplomacy: The EU backed further economic pressure on Iran alongside diplomacy, while Iran accused the EU of surrendering sovereignty by aligning with U.S. sanctions. Regional Reactions: Qatar condemned Iran’s attacks on Jordan and the UAE and also criticized Israeli actions at al-Aqsa. G20 Finance Focus: G20 finance chiefs began talks in Asheville as Washington pushes economic isolation of Iran, with China’s role a key sticking point. Regional Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to set up a defense secretariat under their Makkah Joint Defense Agreement.

US-Iran Strait of Hormuz flare-up: The US struck Iranian assets on Larak Island for the first time in weeks, saying Iran was preparing sea-mine rockets; Iran retaliated with missiles and drones, including claims of hits on US bases in Jordan, while the UAE denied any missile attack on Al Minhad and said it intercepted a drone. Iran’s response and messaging: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran does not seek war but will respond firmly to aggression, as Tehran also dismissed Trump’s AI video claim that Kharg Island was destroyed. Sanctions pressure: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent said Washington will escalate “Operation Economic Outcast” with weekly secondary sanctions targeting banks and partners tied to Iran. Oil and gas shock: Brent jumped back above $90 as markets priced renewed Strait of Hormuz supply risk, with knock-on effects for fuel prices. Regional diplomacy: India’s Modi met Iran’s Pezeshkian on the SCO sidelines in Bishkek, urging trade and cooperation amid the conflict. Lebanon-Israel track: Lebanese President Joseph Aoun urged full implementation of the US-brokered framework agreement with Israel, saying diplomacy—not war—is the path to end the “state of hostility.” Israel-Greece defense boost: Israel signed the €3.5bn “Achilles Shield” air-defense deal with Greece, deepening defense ties as regional tensions rise.

US-Iran Escalation: The U.S. struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island, then Iran retaliated by firing missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted eight missiles near Aqaba, while Iran’s IRGC claims it hit U.S. facilities at King Hussein and Al-Azraq and vowed “punishment.” Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The U.S. says the launches were linked to sea-mine preparations, as both sides trade claims over control and shipping safety. Economic Pressure Campaign: Washington signals tighter sanctions, with Treasury chief Scott Bessent saying more secondary sanctions will come weekly and targeting banks tied to Iranian dollar access. Regional Security Pacts: Turkey will host the first committee meeting under the Saudi-Pakistani-Turkey Mecca defense pact, aiming to operationalize collective defense. Palestine Resistance Commemoration: Resistance Committees marked the first anniversary of Abu Ubaidah’s martyrdom, framing it as a call for continued steadfastness against Israel. Sports (Philippines vs Iran): Gilas Pilipinas beat Iran 68-56 in Asian qualifiers, dedicating the win to June Mar Fajardo’s national-team retirement.

Iran-US/Israel Tensions & Unity Calls: Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei urged Muslim leaders to “recognise your real enemy” and unite against the US and Israel, warning that division among Muslims only helps outside powers; the message comes as Iran and Washington remain locked in a tense standoff and Iran insists any Hormuz-related arrangements depend on US commitments. Sanctions Pressure at G20: US Treasury chief Scott Bessent faces a tough G20 diplomacy test as Washington pushes tougher measures tied to Iran, while Trump stays vague about sanctions on partners, especially China. Regional Security Pact: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are set for the first high-level meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in Istanbul, with talks expected to cover coordination, defense industry cooperation and collective defense planning. Israel-West Bank Crackdown: Israel continues a siege on Qusra near Nablus, with bulldozing and checkpoints reported in the area, while clashes involving settlers and Palestinian residents sparked renewed IDF vs police blame. Gaza Detainees: Palestinian prisoners’ groups say enforced disappearance remains a systematic policy against hundreds of Gaza detainees, with families and lawyers still denied information. Israel-Iran Threats: Israel warns it will strike again if Iran revives nuclear or ballistic missile programs, even if a US deal is reached. Defense Deals: Greece and Israel move toward signing the $3.6bn “Achilles Shield” air-defense network, integrating Israeli systems into a unified layered defense. Human Rights in Iran: Iran’s Supreme Court is reviewing the death sentence of Leila Abolhasani, accused of filming a supermarket fire during January protests.

Iran-US standoff: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed on its terms, even as it reports an Iran-Oman transit understanding that only kicks in after Washington fulfills its commitments; Tehran also rejects US claims that oil is moving normally on the southern route. Sanctions pressure: The US escalated its “Operation Economic Outcast” push, targeting Iran-linked finance and warning partners; Egypt’s Banque Misr is reviewing a Treasury notice after the UAE central bank launched an urgent examination of its branches. Six-month war reality: Iran’s leaders admit the economic toll—trade down sharply and inflation soaring—while vowing no retreat and keeping diplomacy and defense tied together. Israel-Gaza: Israel struck a Gaza hospital compound, targeting a Hamas commander, while volunteers salvaged stones and marble columns from the damaged Abu Salim Mosque in Deir al-Balah. Israel-West Bank: Settlers besieged a Palestinian home in Qusra as tensions remain high. Regional diplomacy: Pakistan says the US-Iran talks window is “not closed,” with mediators still engaged. Other Middle East items: Turkey summoned Ukraine’s ambassador over attacks on Turkish-operated Black Sea vessels; in sports, Iran won the FIVB U17 volleyball title in Doha.