AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Diplomacy: Negotiations are set to resume in Pakistan on July 11, with sanctions, frozen assets and the nuclear file on the agenda, after a pause tied to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei funeral. Regional Mediation: Egypt urged Washington and Tehran to keep momentum on the US-Iran MoU, while Turkey’s Erdogan accused Israel of trying to “dynamite” the deal and warned against renewed regional bloodshed. Khamenei Funeral Fallout: Iran began dayslong state mourning in Tehran with millions expected, as hardliners and allied militant groups attended; Iran also warned the Strait of Hormuz is not a “theater” for extra-regional military display. Security & Retaliation Signals: Iran said it dismantled jihadist cells in Sistan and Baluchestan; Kuwait meanwhile raised an alarm at alleged Iranian attacks and sought UN action. Gaza & Lebanon: Israel killed a Palestinian in Gaza amid continued demolitions, while Lebanon’s health ministry said deaths from Israeli aggression have reached 4,303. Energy Watch: Oil prices hovered near $70 as markets weigh whether OPEC will intervene again. Trade Links: Iran reported $214.7m in exports to Iraq via Mehran crossing in Q1, up 17%.

Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran has kicked off a dayslong state farewell for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Mosalla, with his glass-cased coffin on public display and mass mourning chants of “Revenge” and “Death to America/Israel,” as ceremonies run through Qom, Iraq’s Najaf and Karbala, and burial in Mashhad. US-Iran Talks Pause: US President Donald Trump says Washington paused Iran negotiations for a week to allow the funeral, claiming Tehran is “dying to settle.” Security Warnings on Hormuz: Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi warned the Strait of Hormuz is “not a theatre” for extra-regional military displays after UK-France signaled a wider mission, stressing coastal-state control and warning of consequences. Regional Attendance: Senior Iranian and foreign officials—including Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif and Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev—attended tribute events, while Iran’s IRGC Navy chief vowed “divine retribution” against the US and Israel. Business & Trade: India-Israel’s Bilateral Investment Agreement took effect, aiming to boost cross-border investment and investor protection.

Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran begins a week of mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with his body lying in state in Tehran and ceremonies set to spread to Qom, Najaf, Karbala and Mashhad; foreign delegations keep arriving as authorities project massive crowds. US-Iran Talks on Hold: The U.S.-Iran negotiation track pauses during the funeral, while Washington and Tehran trade warnings over ceasefire implementation and possible escalation. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran reiterates that ships must use approved Hormuz routes, threatening “forceful response,” as regional security planning continues. Regional Diplomacy & Neutrality: Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani tells Iranian officials Erbil will not be used as a threat source and backs dialogue with the U.S. Saudi-U.S. Rift: Reports say Saudi Arabia and the U.S. face their deepest strain in years over Iran policy and regional security priorities. Israel Denies Assassination Claims: Israel’s PM office rejects a New York Times report that Israel planned to target Iran’s top negotiators during talks. Espionage Case: Israel indicts a U.S. citizen allegedly recruited via Telegram and paid in crypto for spying on behalf of Iran. Yemen Rally: A huge crowd in Sanaa thanks Iran for breaking the long siege on Sanaa airport after an Iranian civilian flight was able to land. Energy Markets: Gas prices in Europe rise despite diplomacy progress, while oil moves reflect ongoing war risk.

Iran Funeral Diplomacy: Iran is gearing up for a six-day, high-security state funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with Tehran banners, office closures, airspace and traffic restrictions, and foreign delegations arriving as officials warn Israel and the US against any attack during the ceremonies. Regional Fallout: Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri urged Lebanon to engage Syria “peer-to-peer,” saying cooperation is unavoidable as ties with Israel remain hostile. Nuclear Talks & Warnings: Trump said Iran agreed to “just about everything” in nuclear talks, while Iran’s leadership signaled it could revisit nuclear commitments if threats continue. Gulf Shipping Pressure: Iran reiterated demands for oil tankers to use approved Strait of Hormuz routes or face “forceful response,” as diplomacy and maritime control remain central. Israel-Palestine Developments: Israel approved 13 new illegal West Bank settlements, while Gaza ceasefire efforts continue as Egypt and Qatar push to revive talks. Afghanistan Health Crisis: Afghanistan’s maternal health emergency worsened as restrictions on women’s medical training and access to care deepen the crisis.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Iran and the US wrapped up another round of indirect talks in Doha, with mediators saying “positive progress” was made and a communications channel was agreed to log alleged MoU violations, while frozen assets remain a sticking point. Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran’s military warned all tankers must use Tehran-approved routes or face “forceful response,” even as the UN cautioned that renewed US-Iran clashes could spark wider conflict. Gulf Security Clash at the UN: Bahrain accused Iran of 808 attacks on civilian infrastructure since late February and urged accountability, while Iran’s UN envoy pushed back and warned against undermining ongoing talks. Iran’s Leadership Funeral: Iran is preparing mass mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif set to attend and Turkey also in the spotlight as regional leaders position themselves amid the succession. Gaza at 1,000 Days: Palestinians marked 1,000 days since Israel’s full-scale Gaza assault, with Gaza officials citing tens of thousands killed and ongoing shortages, while protests in Israel demanded accountability. Turkey Domestic Politics: Turkey blocked a US LGBTQ+ cruise from docking, citing “moral standards,” as Erdoğan’s government continues tightening social rules.

US-Iran Hormuz Diplomacy: Indirect technical talks in Doha delivered “positive progress” on the MoU’s implementation and Strait of Hormuz shipping, but mediators say no lasting peace breakthrough is in sight; the next round is expected after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s funeral processions. Shipping Tensions: Iran’s military command again warned oil tankers to use its approved Hormuz routes or face “forceful response,” while Iran also claimed a foreign ship ran aground after ignoring Tehran’s route—an allegation tied to an Iran-linked vessel. Oil Markets: Brent and WTI slid for a third straight day toward pre-war levels as supply fears eased with Hormuz traffic improving and talks appearing to cool risks. Funeral Security & Regional Warnings: Iran is tightening security ahead of Khamenei’s July 4-9 state funeral and warns the US and Israel against “miscalculation,” with IRGC officials urging mass turnout and retaliation readiness. Lebanon-Israel Cost Estimate: Lebanon’s economy minister put Israel’s war damage at potentially over $8B, citing lost activity, infrastructure destruction, and inflation pressures. Pakistan & Malaysia Diplomacy: Pakistan and Malaysia welcomed the Doha understanding, urging strict ceasefire adherence and prioritizing reopening Hormuz for international shipping. Afghanistan-Pakistan Flashpoint: Afghanistan said it launched airstrikes on alleged ISIS targets in Pakistan’s Balochistan, while Islamabad reported drone interceptions and shootdowns.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Indirect US-Iran talks in Doha wrapped up with “positive progress” on implementing the June MoU, including a plan to let Iran use part of its $6B frozen funds to buy humanitarian goods and a new urgent communication channel to track violations. Strait of Hormuz Focus: Washington and Tehran kept discussions technical, centering on maritime traffic and shipping restart, while both sides traded accusations over MoU compliance; US officials say denuclearization is “moving along well,” but Iran says no direct meetings and keeps conditions on the table. Military Uncertainty: Trump and VP JD Vance publicly signaled diplomacy is preferred, yet both left the door open to renewed strikes if Iran resumes nuclear or shipping-related actions. Regional Security & Markets: Oil prices slid as optimism cooled, even as shipping and Hormuz control remain central to the standoff. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq launched high-profile Green Zone raids arresting lawmakers and officials tied to alleged corruption networks, testing the resolve of the new government. Palestinian Territory: The Palestinian Authority warned of Israeli-backed settlement plans to seize 100 strategic points in the West Bank, calling them illegal and a threat to any peace path. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam said the US-brokered Lebanon-Israel accord is a guiding framework, not a treaty, and Beirut is documenting violations while keeping state control over weapons. Afghanistan Quake: A 5.5 quake hit Badakhshan’s Jurm district with no immediate damage reports.

US-Iran Doha Talks: Indirect U.S.-Iran technical talks are set to begin in Doha under Qatari and Pakistani mediation, with no direct meetings between Washington and Tehran as both sides argue over ceasefire terms and next steps for a final deal. Strait of Hormuz Leverage: Iran’s negotiators insist Hormuz is “non-negotiable” and its top negotiator calls the strait its “greatest instrument of power,” while shipping traffic partially resumes and disputes continue over whether any fees/tolls will be charged. Diplomacy vs Hard Lines: Iran says it won’t meet top U.S. envoys, while its defense leadership reiterates missile and drone capabilities are a red line. Markets Watch: Oil prices swing on talk headlines and uncertainty, with Gulf stocks rising early despite caution. Regional Security: Israel carries out demolitions and roadworks across southern Lebanon as ceasefire frictions persist, and it tests an upgraded Iron Dome/laser-linked Iron Beam air-defense integration. Counterterror Moves: Iran deploys special forces to western borders after attacks on security personnel, while Israel reports a suspected stabbing attempt in Lod. Arab Parliament Position: The Arab Parliament speaker urges any U.S.-Iran understandings to include Arab/GCC security concerns and keep the Palestinian cause central. Afghanistan Spillover: Pakistan rejects India’s claims over “targeted actions” against terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan.

US-Iran Diplomacy in Doha: Iran says it will not meet top US envoys in Qatar, even as Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive and technical talks continue via mediators; Qatar insists there’s no high-level face-to-face, while both sides argue over ceasefire terms, frozen assets, and Strait of Hormuz control. Strait of Hormuz Tolls Clash: Iran pushes for sole responsibility and fees for every transit, rejecting outside demining plans, while Oman and the US argue against tolls—keeping shipping and oil markets on edge. Lebanon Border Tensions: Netanyahu visited southern Lebanon troops, vowing Israel will stay as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, after a US-brokered framework that critics fear could stall without Hezbollah disarmament. West Bank and Gaza Pressure: Israel sealed Hebron’s Ibrahimi Mosque with 106 iron gates and seeks tighter control, as Gaza’s access to cemeteries shrinks amid expanding land control. Turkey-Israel Rift Over Armenian Genocide: Erdogan rejected Israel’s Armenian genocide recognition, pointing to Gaza deaths and escalating diplomatic strain. Security Shock in Iran: Two IRGC members were killed in western Iran, with Tehran blaming Kurdish-linked violence, raising questions as talks with Washington remain fragile. US Politics and Israel Aid: A House committee blocked an amendment to cut US military aid to Israel, keeping defense cooperation on track.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian says Tehran will honor the US memorandum only if Washington does too, warning it will respond “decisively and fearlessly” to threats as US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff head to Doha while Iran insists no direct talks are scheduled. Ceasefire Tensions: Iran’s acting defense minister says forces are on high alert and will act if any ceasefire clause is violated, as both sides trade accusations over weekend attacks and the next steps remain unclear. Shipping Pressure: Oman’s FM says mine-risk responsibility for the strait “primarily rests with Iran,” amid reports the US and Gulf allies are steering traffic through a new southern route to reduce Tehran’s leverage. Regional Security Fallout: Germany welcomed the US-Iran halt as a chance for diplomacy, while Israel’s Katz warned fighting could resume quickly and said Israel may operate independently if needed. Local Violence in Iran: Two IRGC members were killed in a shooting near the Iran-Iraq border, with authorities calling it a terrorist act. Afghanistan Crossfire: UNAMA says at least 28 civilians were killed in Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan, escalating Kabul-Islamabad tensions. Israel-Lebanon Stalemate: Analysis warns a US-mediated Israel-Lebanon framework could entrench a stalemate since Hezbollah disarmament is seen as unattainable. Palestine Settlements: Pakistan urged the UN Security Council to force Israel to stop settlement activity in occupied Palestinian territory.

US-Iran Talks in Doha: Conflicting signals keep the Middle East on edge as Washington says high-level talks will be held in Qatar on Tuesday with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran’s foreign ministry insists no US negotiations are planned in the coming days and says its priority is implementing MoU steps, including frozen-asset releases. Strait of Hormuz: Shipping anxiety persists after fresh US-Iran strikes and a sharp drop in tanker traffic; Oman and Iran held their first joint Hormuz committee meeting in Muscat, while Iran rejects French-led demining and says it alone will manage clearance and transit arrangements. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel continues attacks in southern Lebanon despite the US-brokered framework; US officials say they will monitor compliance with neutrality, and UN officials hailed the deal as a milestone, even as Hezbollah and Lebanon’s political leadership criticize it. Regional Pressure Points: Iraq set a Sept 30 deadline for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm under US pressure, and Iran is reportedly pressing Baghdad over Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. Afghanistan Border Fallout: Pakistan airstrikes and ground operations in eastern Afghanistan killed at least 36 civilians, drawing condemnation from Afghan officials and others.

US-Iran De-escalation: The US and Iran agreed to pause “kinetic activity” and stand down for now, with technical talks continuing and a new meeting planned in Qatar on Tuesday to settle their Strait of Hormuz dispute; both sides say vessels can move freely again. Frozen Assets: Iran’s president says $6B of $12B held in Qatar will be released to Tehran under the interim deal, as negotiations face pressure from renewed attacks. Israel-Lebanon Framework: A US-brokered framework deal took effect June 29, setting phased IDF withdrawal into “pilot areas” while Lebanon’s army is to take security control—though Hezbollah rejects the plan and protests erupted in Beirut. Afghanistan-Pakistan Border: Pakistan carried out cross-border strikes and a ground operation into Afghan provinces, with Taliban officials saying civilians were killed and wounded, while Pakistan cites militant targets linked to attacks in Karachi. Armenian Genocide Row: Azerbaijan urged Israel to reconsider its move to recognize the 1915 events as genocide, calling it a political distortion of history and warning it deepens regional divisions. Bahrain UN Push: Bahrain asked the UN Security Council to hold Iran accountable over drone attacks, calling them a sovereignty violation and a threat to regional security.

US-Iran Hormuz Crisis: The US and Iran agreed to pause recent hostilities and resume talks in Doha Tuesday, after days of tit-for-tat strikes that have frayed a fragile MoU over Strait of Hormuz transit and control. Gulf Escalation: Iran launched missiles and drones at US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, while the US hit Iranian targets again, with both sides accusing the other of violating the ceasefire. Lebanon Front: Israel said it destroyed Hezbollah underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including a tunnel near Majdal Zoun, as Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework and vowed continued resistance. Regional Diplomacy: Iraqi leaders met Iran’s foreign minister to discuss the MoU and regional stability as tensions with Washington persist. Turkey-Israel Row: Turkey condemned Israel’s move to recognize the Armenian genocide, calling it politically motivated. World Cup Fallout: Iran’s World Cup run ended after Austria’s late equaliser sent them out; the team and officials blamed visa and travel restrictions tied to the US-Iran standoff. Pakistan-Iran Trade: Pakistan is considering buying cheaper Iranian oil and gas, and Taftan railway station was designated a land customs facility to boost rail trade. Afghanistan Quake: A 6.1 earthquake struck northeastern Afghanistan, with tremors felt across Kabul and into Pakistan.

Gulf Flashpoint: Iran’s IRGC says it struck eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain with missiles and drones, as the US says it hit 10 Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after a tanker attack—both sides accuse each other of breaking the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, with Tehran warning it may halt diplomatic talks and impose stricter control of shipping. Strait of Hormuz Control: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says the waterway is under Iran’s “total oversight” for 30 days and warns any unilateral arrangements will delay reopening; Iran also pushes designated routes and transit fees, while the US insists navigation should remain open. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel says forces are preparing for an “extended stay” in the southern security zone unless Hezbollah is disarmed; Netanyahu calls the deal historic, while Hezbollah rejects it as “null and void,” and France says it’s ready to help implement the framework. Afghanistan Earthquakes: A 5.9 quake hit Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush, injuring more than 20 and damaging dozens of homes, with tremors felt in Kabul and across Pakistan. World Cup Shock: Iran’s unbeaten run ends as VAR and late drama knock them out—Austria and Algeria’s 3-3 draw sends Iran home, while the knockout bracket is set. Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan’s business forum urges turning de-escalation between Pakistan and Iran into trade and energy cooperation, aiming to lift bilateral commerce well beyond current levels.

U.S.-Iran Escalation: The U.S. carried out further strikes on Iran, targeting military surveillance and drone-related sites, saying Tehran violated a ceasefire after a drone attack hit a tanker near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran says it hit U.S.-linked targets in retaliation and warns responses will be “swift and crushing.” Hormuz Shipping Risk: A tanker was struck in the strait as both sides trade blame, while maritime traffic remains tense and Gulf states watch for wider spillover. Lebanon-Israel Framework Fallout: Lebanon’s president says the U.S.-brokered framework is a path to restoring sovereignty, but Hezbollah rejects it as a threat to independence and vows to resist disarmament terms; Israel’s Netanyahu calls it a “blow” to Iran and says pilot pullouts depend on Hezbollah disarmament. Arab League Diplomacy: The Arab Parliament conference in Cairo praised Qatar and Pakistan’s role in U.S.-Iran mediation and backed Palestinian cause decisions. Regional Economics & Pressure: Iran’s inflation hit 88.6% year-on-year, adding strain as the standoff continues. Humanitarian Note: UNRWA says environmental health workers keep supporting Palestine refugees across West Bank camps. Earthquakes: A 5.9 quake hit Pakistan and Afghanistan with no immediate casualties reported.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK maritime watchdog said, as Bahrain accused Iran of a drone attack on the island kingdom. US-Iran Tensions: Iran said it struck US-linked targets after US airstrikes on its southern coast, while Washington framed its moves as retaliation for an attack on a cargo ship—each side accusing the other of violating the ceasefire terms. Gulf Security Pressure: Bahrain, home to the US Navy’s 5th Fleet, condemned the drone attack as a threat to sovereignty and said it reserved the right to defend itself. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-backed framework aimed at ending fighting and pushing Hezbollah disarmament, but Hezbollah lawmakers warned they would resist implementation. West Bank Raids: Reports say Israel is preparing a wider push in West Bank refugee camps around upcoming Jewish holidays. World Cup Politics & Sports: In Seattle’s “Pride Match,” Egypt beat the drama by qualifying first; Iran’s late winner was ruled offside in a 1-1 draw, leaving Iran waiting on other results, while Egypt’s Mohamed Salah left with a left-knee injury.